Nigeria: Africa's superpower?

A couple of years ago, I watched an interview with the former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo. At one point, the journalist asked about Nigeria's status as a regional superpower. Sharply interrupting him, Obasanjo asked: "Who told you we're a superpower?" On Tuesday night, that question became the title of a debate at the British Museum-Guardian public forum, chaired by Jon Snow.

The British Museum is currently running the Kingdom of Ife exhibition, showcasing the sculpture of west Africa from a bygone age. Neil MacGregor, director of the museum, noted the trade and relationship of equality that existed between Europe and Africa around the time these objects were sculpted, a relationship which has since collapsed. This bygone era was the hopeful starting point of the discussion.

Of the exhibition, Matthew Kukah, parish priest of Kaduna, said the exhibition made him feel "like a slave who has discovered he is a prince". He argued that the exhibition has come at a special time for the country – the exhibition should be taken alongside other events going on in Nigeria. Alluding to Harold Macmillan's speech of 50 years ago, he said: "The wind of change is blowing, but in a far more dramatic way."

Dr Abdul Raufu Mustapha, lecturer in african politics at the University of Oxford wasn't so sure. For him, Nigeria is "the land of unrealised dreams". He blamed a failure of leadership, vision and institutions for the inability to capture the energies of Nigerians and channel it in constructive ways. But, he pointed out, Nigeria has not collapsed. It hasn't developed either, but manages to persist in an "unstable equilibrium". The fragmentation of the population, along both ethnic and religious lines, brought comparisons with Tanzania and Malaysia, where the ethnic mixes have managed to co-exist and thrive. But, he argued, Nigeria has "no Nkrumah, no Mandela, no champions". So how does this "sub-optimal state" sustain itself? Mustapha identified three things – oil, the army and the much-touted middle class – which he claimed are all that stand between Nigeria and anarchy.

Author and lawyer Dele Ogun wondered about Nigeria's "arrested development" following the time of the Kingdom of Ife and how it could it have gone so badly wrong. It boiled down to the very constituents of Nigeria: the ethnic groups are wary and suspicious of one another, and, until they harmonise, Nigeria will always have a "story of unfulfilled potential". Nigeria was a country founded on the premise of a regional power player. With the power of hindsight, he said, it had been a grave mistake. In an analogy that got one of the biggest laughs of the night, he argued that Nigeria could remain like an apple – one solid entity – or it could be an orange – whole, but with distinct and recognisable segments. Waggishly, he added: "Oranges grow in Nigeria. Apples do not."

For author Chika Unigwe, things were a lot more optimistic. Yes, there is a brain drain, and the mismanagement of the 1970s oil revenues remains a looming spectre, but the ordinary Nigerian believes that Nigeria is the "giant of Africa", even in the face of events that would suggest the contrary. For her, Nigeria's superpower status was something that needn't be viewed in the same old ways. Nigeria could be a cultural superpower through its art, books and films; it is very much a leading light both in Africa, and worldwide. Crucially, she noted, the arts have risen above the usual problems of ethnic division and are being enjoyed and celebrated by all Nigerians.

Is China's presence in Africa, and specifically Nigeria, a threat? Both Dele Ogun and Dr Mustapha were dismissive: China is "the least of [Nigeria's] problems". Had Nigeria recovered from colonisation? Mustapha answered: "Our background is very much there in the way we operate. When you talk about our problems, we must talk about it in terms of our ability to change."

On the question of corruption, Ogun argued that corruption is universal, but the real problem lay in the governance structure being so large. He said: "It is not democracy we practice, though we have the trappings." Kukah eloquently posited that we often "confuse office holders with leaders". Asked why they get away with it, the panel agreed that with a lack of institutions, there is no means of punishing those in the wrong. The basis of pocket filling, the panel and several members of the audience believed, lay in the outgoing British installing a "system built for plunder".

The audience, described by Snow as the "most energised, engaged and exciting", touched on the importance of the returning diaspora, and adapting their knowledge to fit in with Nigeria's reality. About one in 15 Africans is Nigerian, and they are spread across the world, at all levels of skill and power. Perhaps it is time for us to reconsider the traditional definition of "superpower". Because Nigeria is a superpower in Africa. From taking in displaced Nigerians, to its trading with the Republic of Benin and its various peacekeeping missions, Nigeria is relevant to the future of Africa. As Mustapha put it: "There cannot be peace in west Africa without Nigeria." While it may not look it at home, Nigeria's superpower lies abroad.

Kukah summed up Nigeria – past, present and future – best: "Nigeria is like a Catholic marriage; it may not be happy, but it does not break up."